Saturday, September 30, 2017

Sunspot Cycle, Cygni-61, and Procyon


The oscillating collapse of quantum aether is why unlike charges attract as well as why matter attracts other matter and so unites both gravity and charge forces. Furthermore, the motion of collapsing matter results in a vector quadrupole gravity force besides monopole gravity between moving stars called quadrupole gravitization. The decay of star mass along with its motion relative to other stars couples star motion with quadrupole gravitization within galaxies. Similar to the dipole magnetization of moving dipole charge, quadrupole gravitization (QG) is a quadrupole vector force between moving stars.

Quadrupole gravitization (QG) coupling also affects the outer convection of our sun and other stars by coupling convection cell motion to other star decays and motions and when there are two stars at the same distance from the sun, QG results in a cycle period corresponding to their time separation. The stars Cygni-61 and Procyon are both 11.4 light years away and their QG coupling is an example of QG affecting the convection of the sun with a 11.4y cycle. In addition to the 11.4y cycle, Cygni-61 A and B is a binary with a 678 yr period that is 11.4 lyrs from sol and Procyon A and B is another binary with 41 year period that is also 11.4 lyrs from sol. Those binary periods then also affect the intensity, phase, and period of the sunspot cycle in an absolute sense.

Gravitization from Cygni-61 and Procyon affects the sun's convection and results in a periodic variation of sunspots over time corresponding to the time distance. Fitting the parameters with least squares minimization results in the fit shown below and is absolutely predictive. The QG fit up until 2012 predicts cycle 24 intensity fairly well but the fit peaks two years earlier as the figure shows. In addition, there appear to be additional sources of sunspot variability that the matter wave model does not yet include.


In particular the delay of the latest sunspot maximum of cycle 24 by two years from 2012 to 2014 is not unlike past delays like that of cycle 19 minimum from predicted 1974 to observed 1976. One possible source of this extra variability may be the well-known variabilities of Cygni-61A and B also plotted, but it is not yet clear how to account for this variability in the QG model. The NASA-Goddard prediction in 2009 for cycle 24 was 90 spots/day and 2013.4 while the Schlatten model was 2013.25 and 80 spots/day. Since the two year shift had already occurred at the 2009 minimum, the QG prediction for cycle 24 was more accurate than either NASA-Goddard or Schlatten.

The QG prediction for cycle 25 is for a peak in 2024.25 at 122 spots/day and this prediction depends on the fit from 1/1/1749 to 1/1/2013 cycle 23 and includes the Maunder minimum in 1670. In fact, the matter wave model is a regression fit and so matter wave predictions really do not vary much with each new cycle.

The Maunder Minimum was a ~30 year period around 1670 when the sun was devoid of sunspots and the weather was particularly cold. The binary orbit of Cygnis-61A and Cygnis-61B corresponds to the apparent equidistance from Earth's perspective of these binaries and so associates a lower QG convection of the sun with that period.








Friday, September 8, 2017

Remaking the Spell of Supernatural Belief

Secularists argue that consciousness and the angst of existence and purpose do not depend on supernatural beliefs like religions. In fact, Daniel Dennett in 2006 wrote a whole book about breaking the spell of religion with secularism. However, Dennett's secularism then goes on to declare many diverse beliefs in in all kinds of moral and ethical values and emphasize that these beliefs are based on secular and not religious values...in which he simply believes. Instead of breaking the spell of religion, secularism should rather remake the spell of supernatural belief.

Consciousness is a somewhat mysterious but integral part of existence and yet even very smart people cannot seem to agree about the nature of consciousness. Religions believe in various supernatural agents as a necessary part of consciousness and purpose, but secularists seems to believe that there is no need for any beliefs in supernatural religious agents...ironically a belief in nonbelief.

Nevertheless, secular beliefs are just that...beliefs. Secular beliefs anchor consciousness just as do religious beliefs and really there is no difference between anchors of supernatural religious beliefs and supernatural secular beliefs for addressing the angst of existence and purpose. Secularism should not therefore deny supernatural belief, rather secularism should remake the spell of supernatural religion into a supernatural compassionate selfism.

The basic supernatural selfist beliefs are of matter and action, which are the self-evident axioms that describe the universe existence. Secularism cannot further define either matter or action and must simply accept matter and action as supernatural belief in the way the universe is. A traditional personification of matter is Mother Earth while that of action is Father Time. Instead of fighting against all of the various supernatural religious agents, secularism should simply accept the mystery of the supernatural agents of Earth and Time.

People believe in a great many different religious supernatural agents, but the greatest growth over the last century has been in the secularists who proclaim little or no religious affiliation as the figure shows. Johnson and Grimm compared world religious beliefs in 1910 with those in 2010 and found the greatest percent growth in secularism, 12%. Islam grew 10%, from 13 to 23% from 1910 to 2010, but the growth in Islam largely reflects the population growth of the less developed world according to a Pew study. In contrast, the growth of secularism seems to have come from conversion and not from population growth.



The marked decline in various ethnic religions of -20% seems to have been the result of both lower population growth in advanced regions as well as conversion into secularism. Thus while the growth of Islam has been driven largely by population growth, the growth of secularism has been driven by conversion. The large growth of Islam is a result of higher fertility rates and all of the attendant demands for limited resources of that increasing population. In contrast, the growth of secularism is a result of increasing wealth, education, life expectancy, and lower fertility rates and more efficient use of the same limited resources.

In 1910, secularism was a very small part of global belief and most people believed in one of the many religions. The explosive growth of secularism since 1910 seems to be associated with increasing literacy, education, wealth, life expectancy, and with more efficient use of limited resources in the more advanced world. The industrial and information revolutions have ironically resulted in the rise of secularism as well as a decline in fertility rates below replacement in the more advanced world. Ironically, though, the industrial and information revolutions have also fueled the high fertility rates of the less developed world and so are also largely responsible for the growth of Islam.

The fertility rates of the less developed world are now fueling a mass migration from less into more developed regions and those migrations result in many social pressures. The collisions between the two largest growing beliefs, first secularism and second Islam, is perhaps the contact that produces the most friction. In Europe, secularism is 50% while in China, it is 60% while other developed nations range from 20-50% secularism as noted in Paul Harrison's recent essay.

Most modern world religions including Islam have adapted very well to each other as well as to the rise in secularism despite having conflicting beliefs, but there is a very radical minority in Islam that violently rejects conflicting beliefs. This Islamic minority not only rejects any acquiescence with secularism, but also rejects any acquiescence with other religions including mainstream Islam.

The minority Islamist conflict is simply a manifestation of Earth's overpopulation and therefore represents a competition for Earth's limited resources. Since Earth's population is still growing, there will likely be more conflicts, especially between secularism and violent religious minorities. Wealth, education, and life expectancy seem to be keys for both capping population growth as well as converting more people to secular beliefs, but religious belief will likely to continue to have an enduring role in the developed world.