Saturday, September 30, 2017

Sunspot Cycle, Cygni-61, and Procyon

The oscillating collapse of quantum aether is why unlike charges attract as well as why matter attracts other matter and so unites both gravity and charge forces. Furthermore, the motion of collapsing matter results in a vector quadrupole gravity force besides monopole gravity between moving stars called quadrupole gravitization. The decay of star mass along with its motion relative to other stars couples star motion with quadrupole gravitization within galaxies. Similar to the dipole magnetization of moving dipole charge, quadrupole gravitization (QG) is a quadrupole vector force between moving stars.

Quadrupole gravitization (QG) coupling also affects the outer convection of our sun and other stars by coupling convection cell motion to other star decays and motions and when there are two stars at the same distance from the sun, QG results in a cycle period corresponding to their time separation. The stars Cygni-61 and Procyon are both 11.4 light years away and their QG coupling is an example of QG affecting the convection of the sun with a 11.4y cycle. In addition to the 11.4y cycle, Cygni-61 A and B is a binary with a 678 yr period that is 11.4 lyrs from sol and Procyon A and B is another binary with 41 year period that is also 11.4 lyrs from sol. Those binary periods then also affect the intensity, phase, and period of the sunspot cycle in an absolute sense.

Gravitization from Cygni-61 and Procyon affects the sun's convection and results in a periodic variation of sunspots over time corresponding to the time distance. Fitting the parameters with least squares minimization results in the fit shown below and is absolutely predictive. The QG fit up until 2012 predicts cycle 24 intensity fairly well but the fit peaks two years earlier as the figure shows. In addition, there appear to be additional sources of sunspot variability that the matter wave model does not yet include.

In particular the delay of the latest sunspot maximum of cycle 24 by two years from 2012 to 2014 is not unlike past delays like that of cycle 19 minimum from predicted 1974 to observed 1976. One possible source of this extra variability may be the well-known variabilities of Cygni-61A and B also plotted, but it is not yet clear how to account for this variability in the QG model. The NASA-Goddard prediction in 2009 for cycle 24 was 90 spots/day and 2013.4 while the Schlatten model was 2013.25 and 80 spots/day. Since the two year shift had already occurred at the 2009 minimum, the QG prediction for cycle 24 was more accurate than either NASA-Goddard or Schlatten.

The QG prediction for cycle 25 is for a peak in 2024.25 at 122 spots/day and this prediction depends on the fit from 1/1/1749 to 1/1/2013 cycle 23 and includes the Maunder minimum in 1670. In fact, the matter wave model is a regression fit and so matter wave predictions really do not vary much with each new cycle.

The Maunder Minimum was a ~30 year period around 1670 when the sun was devoid of sunspots and the weather was particularly cold. The binary orbit of Cygnis-61A and Cygnis-61B corresponds to the apparent equidistance from Earth's perspective of these binaries and so associates a lower QG convection of the sun with that period.